2011/10/09 IHS: 半導體庫存已來到80天的警戒水位，需求比2008年低迷－真乄科技業的頂尖投資團隊

IHS-Semi inventories recall downturn of

SAN FRANCISCO—Inventories held by semiconductor suppliers swelled in the second quarter to levels not seen since the start of the last downturn in early 2008, raising concerns over the near-term outlook for the chip market, according to market research firm IHS iSuppli.

Global supplier semiconductor stockpiles at the end of the second quarter stood at an unusually high 83.4 days of inventory (DOI)—a level exceeding even the last record high of 83.1 DOI seen in the first quarter of 2008, IHS said.

The inventory level in the second quarter was 11 percent above the historical seasonal average usually recorded for the period, IHS said. This is close to the 11.1 percent oversupply seen in the first quarter of 2008, right at the start of a two-year downturn in the semiconductor industry, according to the firm.

"For the semiconductor industry, wading into such potentially troubling territory—reminiscent of the dark days leading into the recession—could herald the beginning of a critical inventory adjustment period," said Sharon Stiefel, semiconductor analyst at IHS, in a statement. "The correction is likely to take place during the next few quarters and will not be completed until mid-2012."

Stiefel said the correction would involve suppliers making a prolonged reduction in their inventory levels to avoid dangerous oversupply situations.

The second-quarter inventory DOI represents a jump of 3.5 days from 79.9 days in the first quarter, IHS said. It was the first time in 12 consecutive quarters that DOI has tipped over the 80-day mark, IHS said.

Semiconductor revenue projections for the third quarter are being scaled back as various indicators point to a stalling economy, IHS noted. For example, U.S. gross domestic product growth in 2011 now is expected to amount to a mere 1.7 percent, down sharply from 3 percent in 2010, according to IHS.

IHS recently revised its semiconductor revenue forecast to 2.9 percent growth in 2011, down from the 4.6 percent annual growth rate projected in an August forecast and a steep plunge from the 32.4 percent growth recorded in 2010.

IHS said the projections for flat sequential revenue by many chip companies for the third quarter reflect decreased supply chain visibility based on slowing end demand.

According to IHS's preliminary estimate, DOR declined by more than 2 percent in the third quarter to 81.3 days, with chip suppliers recalibrating inventory to reflect the ongoing reduction in demand. Unlike in the past, suppliers now have reduced capacity utilization to cope with downsized markets while still maintaining flexible production capacity in case unexpected orders materialize, IHS said.

IHS said it expects sequential growth of 4.8 percent for the semiconductor industry in the third quarter--notwithstanding the ongoing economic turmoil, IHS said. Strong performances are expected from the semiconductor sectors serving the data processing and wireless communication categories, which should help offset declines in other end markets, the firm said.