真乄科技業的頂尖投資團隊

市場研究公司Gartner的IT專家團隊近日公布了2015年十大IT趨勢預測，其中包括計算無處不在、物聯網、3D打印等等。

Gartner認為，這些策略性科技趨勢可能會在未來3年對企業產生重大影響。以下是它們的摘要：

1. 計算無處不在

Gartner估計，隨著智能手機技術的不斷提升，企業將更注重在各種不同的情境和環境中滿足移動用戶的需求，而不是僅僅專注于設備。Gartner認為，智能手機和可穿戴設備是在工作場所和公共場所布置聯網屏幕的計算設備部署運動的一部分。用戶體驗設計將至關重要。

2. 物聯網（IoT）

在無處不在的用戶導向型計算設備的驅動下，物聯網將繼續擴張。Gartner預計，這種情況將同時出現在工業環境和運作環境中，它將成為數字化商業產品和流程的焦點。更加深入地嵌入技術將為用戶帶來隨處可見的觸點。這將形成數字化商業的基礎。

3. 3D打印

3D打印的成本未來3年將出現下降，促使低價3D打印機市場快速擴張。它的工業用途也將持續擴張。Gartner強調稱，該類技術的擴張在工業、生 物醫學和消費應用中將尤其突出，凸顯出該趨勢的切實存在，證明3D打印是可行的、成本效益好的方式，通過改進設計、簡化原型設計和短期制造幫助降低成本。

4. 無形的先進數據分析到處滲透

由于物聯網和持續發展的嵌入式設備趨勢，數據分析技術將持續提升。未來組織結構內外仍會形成海量的結構化和非結構化數據。Gartner指出，每一款應用都需要成為一款分析應用。它還總結道，大問題和大答案比大數據本身更重要。

5. 環境感知型系統

伴隨到處滲透的分析技術而普遍存在的嵌入式智能將促進警覺和響應周圍環境的系統的發展。Gartner強調稱，環境感知型安全是這種趨勢的早期應用，未來還將出現其它的應用。

6. 智能機器

數據分析技術和環境感知技術的結合將催生智能機器。先進的算法將催生能夠自行學習和基于學習采取行動的系統。Gartner指出，機器助手將會在當 前的無人駕駛汽車原型、高級機器人、虛擬個人助手和智能顧問的基礎上繼續進化。它還預計，智能機器時代將會是IT史上最具顛覆性的時代。

7. 云/客戶端架構

移動計算和云計算將繼續融合，引發能夠交付到任何設備的集中協調型應用程序的發展。Gartner指出，云計算是應用程序的靈活擴展和自助計算能力 的基礎，不管它們是面向內部還是面向外部。有效使用智能和客戶端設備存儲的應用將受益于帶寬成本的降低，協調和管理工作將基于云端。Gartner還指 出，隨著時間的推移，應用將進化至同時支持多臺設備的使用的地步。未來，游戲類和企業類應用程序將使用多個屏幕以及利用可穿戴設備及其它設備來提供更好的 體驗。

8. 軟件定義的基礎設施和應用

從基礎設施基本功能到應用程序的一切的敏捷式開發方法，對于企業提供數字化商業有效運作所需的靈活性必不可少。軟件定義的網絡化、存儲、數據中心和 安全技術在不斷成熟。應用程序接口（API）調用讓云服務軟件變得可以配置，應用程序有豐富的API來接入它們的功能和內容。Gartner指出，處理數 字化商業瞬息萬變的需求，需要計算從靜態模式轉換至動態模式。

9. Web規模IT

互聯網醫療網絡安全網絡招聘網絡視頻互聯網NGN互聯網電視移動端視頻全媒體全媒體租車微型電子計算機
Gartner指出，未來將有更多的企業以亞馬遜、谷歌、Facebook等科技巨頭的方式去思考、行動和打造應用程序和基礎設施。隨著商業化硬件 平臺擁抱新模式，云優化和軟件定義的方式成為主流，企業將趨向Web規模IT。Gartner指出，協調的開發與運營之間的結合是Web規模IT的第一 步。

10. 基于風險的安全和自行保護技術

Gartner總結

在向數字化未來的演變期間，安全性仍將是重要的考量因素，不過相關技術不應過分嚴厲，否則進展會受到抑制。

鑒于很多企業都意 識到100%安全的解決方案是無法實現的，基于風險的安全和自行保護技術將變得更加主流，未來在流程和工具層面將有更多先進的風險評估和風險消減方式得到 實施。Gartner指出，隨著多面的方案的出現，周圍防御系統將被普遍認為是不可行的技術。

安全感知應用設計，動態和靜態應用安全測試，運行時間應用自 行保護，以及主動的環境感知和適應性的訪問控制，都將必不可少。

Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is under way in Orlando. As always, their IT experts have identified what they believe to be the top-ten information technology trends for the year ahead. Strategic technology trends are defined as having potentially significant impact on organizations in the next three years. Here is a summary of the trends:

1. Computing Everywhere

With the continued advancement in smart-phone technology, Gartner assesses that an increased emphasis on serving the needs of the mobile user in diverse contexts and environments, as opposed to focusing on devices alone. Gartner posits that smart-phones and wearable devices are part of a broader computing offering to include connected screens in the workplace and in public spaces. User experience design will be of critical importance.

2. The Internet of Things (IoT)

The Internet of Things will continue to expand, propelled by the ubiquity of user-oriented computing. Gartner posits that this will be replicated both in industrial and in operational contexts, as it will be the focus of digital business products and processes. Embedding technology more deeply will create touch points for users everywhere. This will form the foundation of digital business.

3. 3D Printing

The cost of 3D printing will decrease in the next three years, leading to rapid growth of the market for these low-cost machines. Industrial use will also continue its rapid expansion. Gartner highlights that expansion will be especially great in industrial, biomedical and consumer applications, highlighting the extent to which this trend is real, proving that 3D printing is a viable and cost-effective way to reduce costs through improved designs, streamlined prototyping and short-run manufacturing.

4. Advanced, Pervasive, Invisible Analytics

Analytics will continue to advance due to the Internet of things and the embedded devices that trend will continue to foster. Vast pools of structured and unstructured data inside and outside organizations will continue to be generated. Gartner points out that every app will need to be an analytic app. The analysis also concludes that big questions and big answers are more important than big data.

5. Context-Rich Systems

Embedded intelligence that is ubiquitous combined with pervasive analytics will foster the development of systems that are alert and responsive to surroundings. Gartner highlights that context-aware security is an early application of this trend, but that others will emerge.

6. Smart Machines

Analytics combined with an understanding of context will usher in smart machines. Advanced algorithms will lead to systems that learn for themselves and act upon those learnings. Gartner notes that machine helpers will continue to evolve from the existing prototypes for autonomous vehicles, advanced robots, virtual personal assistants and smart advisors. The analysis goes on to speculate that the smart machine era will be the most disruptive in the history of IT.

7. Cloud/Client Architecture

Mobile computing and cloud computing continue to converge and lead to the growth of centrally coordinated applications that can be delivered to any device. Gartner notes that cloud computing is the foundation of elastically scalable, self-service computing for both internally and externally facing applications. Apps that use intelligence and storage of client device effectively will benefit from lowering bandwidth costs, coordination and management will be based on the cloud. The analysis goes on to note that over time applications will evolve to support simultaneous use of multiple devices. In the future, games and enterprise applications alike will use multiple screens and exploit wearables and other devices to deliver an enhanced experience.

8. Software-Defined Infrastructure and Applications

Agile development methods for programming of everything from infrastructure basics to applications is essential to enable organizations to deliver the flexibility required to make the digital business work. Software defined networking, storage, data centers and security are maturing. Application programming interface (API) calls render cloud services software configurable, and applications have rich APIs to access their function and content programmatically. Gartner notes that in order to deal with the rapidly changing demands of digital business with demand shifts both up and down require computing to move away from static to dynamic models.

9. Web-Scale IT

Gartner notes that more companies will think, act, and build applications and infrastructure in the same way that technology stalwarts like Amazon, Google GOOGL -2.67%, and Facebook do. There will be an evolution toward web-scale IT as commercial hardware platforms embrace the new models and cloud-optimised and software-defined methods become mainstream. Gartner notes that the marriage of development and operations in a coordinated way (referred to as DevOps) is the first step towards the web-scale IT.

10. Risk-Based Security and Self-Protection

Lastly, the analysis concludes that security will remain an important consideration through this evolution toward the digital future, but it should not be so heavy-handed as to impede progress. As many companies have recognized that 100 percent security solutions are not feasible, this will become more mainstream, and more sophisticated meathods of risk assessment and risk mitigation from a process and tool perspective will be implemented. Gartner notes that perimeter defense will be broadly recognized as inadequate, and multi-faceted approaches will be devised. Security aware application design, dynamic and static application security testing, and runtime application self-protection, combined with active context-aware and adaptive access controls will all be necessary.