真乄科技業的頂尖投資團隊

Global growth in the number of “things” connected to the Internet continues to significantly outpace the addition of human users to the World Wide Web.  New connections to the “Internet of Things” are now increasing by more than 6x the number of people being added to the “Internet of Humans” each year.  Despite the increasing number of connections, IC Insights has trimmed back its semiconductor forecast for Internet of Things system functions over the next four years by about $1.9 billion, mostly because of lower sales projections for connected cities applications (such as smart electric meters and infrastructure).  Total IoT semiconductor sales are still expected to rise 19% in 2016 to $18.4 billion, as shown in Figure 1, but the updated forecast first presented in the Update to the 2016 IC Market Drivers Report reduces the market’s compound annual growth rate between 2014 and 2019 to 19.9% compared to the original CAGR of 21.1%.  Semiconductor sales for IoT system functions are now expected to reach $29.6 billion in 2019 versus the previous projection of $31.1 billion in the final year of the forecast.

The most significant changes in the new outlook are that semiconductor revenues for connected cities applications are projected to grow by a CAGR of 12.9% between 2014 and 2019 (down from 15.5% in the original forecast) while the connected vehicles segment is expected to rise by a CAGR of 36.7% (up from 31.2% in the previous projection). IoT semiconductor sales for connected cities are now forecast to reach $15.7 billion in 2019 while the chip market for connected vehicle functions is expected to be $1.7 billion in 2019, up from the previous forecast of $1.4 billion.

For 2016, revenues of IoT semiconductors used in connected cities applications are expected to rise 15% to about $11.4 billion while the connected vehicle category is projected to climb 66% to $787 million this year.

Sales of IoT semiconductors for wearable systems have also increased slightly in the forecast period compared to the original projection.  Sales of semiconductors for wearable IoT systems are now expected to grow 22% to about $2.2 billion in 2016 after surging 421% in 2015 to nearly $1.8 billion following Apple’s entry into the smartwatch market in 2Q15.  The semiconductor market for wearable IoT applications is expected to be nearly $3.9 billion in 2019. Meanwhile, the forecast for IoT semiconductors in connected homes and the Industrial Internet categories remains unchanged.  The connected homes segment is still expected to grow 26% in 2016 to about $545 million, and the Industrial Internet chip market is forecast to increase 22% to nearly $3.5 billion.  The semiconductor forecast for IoT connections in the Industrial Internet is still expected to grow by a CAGR of 25.7% to nearly $7.3 billion in 2019 from $2.3 billion in 2014.

Report Details:  The 2016 IC Market Drivers Report

Additional details on the market for Internet of Things systems and ICs is included in the 2016 Update of IC Insights’ IC Market Drivers—A Study of Emerging and Major End-Use Applications Fueling Demand for Integrated Circuits. This report examines the largest, existing system opportunities for ICs and evaluates the potential for new applications that are expected to help fuel the market for ICs through the end of this decade.

IC Market Drivers is divided into two parts.  Part 1 provides a detailed forecast of the IC industry by system type, by region, and by IC product type through 2019.  In Part 2, IC Market Drivers examines and evaluates key existing and emerging end-use applications that will support and propel the IC industry through 2019.  Other system application covered include smartphones, personal/mobile computing (including tablets), servers, medical/wearable devices, and a review of many applications to watch—those that may potentially provide significant opportunity for IC suppliers later this decade.  IC Market Drivers 2016 is priced at $3,490 for an individual user license and $6,590 for a multi user corporate license.

儘管連結數量增加,IC Insights仍下修了對未來四年之物聯網半導體營收預測,主要是考量連網城市應用銷售表現不如預期。

市場研究機構IC Insights指出,全球連網裝置數量的成長速度已經顯著超越上網人數,目前每年物聯網(IoT)新連結的增加數量是上網人口的六倍以上。但儘管連結數量增加,該機構仍把對未來四年物聯網系統對半導體營收的貢獻下修了19億美元,主要是考量連網城市應用(如智慧電表與基礎建設)的銷售表現不如預期。

IC Insights的最新預測數據是,整體物聯網半導體銷售額估計在2016年可成長19%,達到184億美元。但該機構原本預測,2014到2019年間物聯網半導體市場的複合年平均成長率(CAGR)為21.1%,現在則修正為19.9%;因此估計2019年物聯網半導體市場規模為296億美元,低於先前預測的311億美元。

新數字來自於對連網城市應用之半導體營收的預測變化;IC Insights原先估計該類應用在2014~2016年間的CAGR為15.5%,但現在僅剩12.9%。不過連網汽車應用領域的物聯網半導體營收CAGR,則由原先估計的31.2%增加為36.7%。

估計到2019年,連網城市應用之物聯網半導體銷售額可達到157億美元,連網汽車應用物聯網半導體銷售額則為17億美元(原先預測為14億美元)。2016年,應用於連網城市領域的物聯網半導體營收估計可成長15%,達到約114億美元;同時間連網汽車領域的物聯網半導體營收估計可成長66%,達到7.87億美元。

IC Insights也略微上修了對穿戴式系統應用物聯網半導體銷售額之預測;該應用市場在2015年成長率高達421%、達到18億美元(主要因為Apple在2015年第二季正式進軍智慧手錶市場),估計2016年銷售額可成長22%,達到22億美元。穿戴式應用物聯網市場估計到2019年可達近39億美元規模。

而IC Insights對連網家庭與工業物聯網領域的預測則未改變,估計連網家庭物聯網半導體市場銷售額在2016年可成長26%,達到5.45億美元左右,而工業物聯網晶片市場則可成長22%、達到約35億美元。工業物聯網半導體市場的2014~2019年間CAGR估計為25.7%,營收規模可由2014年的23億美元,在2019年成長為73億美元。

Source:http:Icinsights

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