隨著相關技術逐漸成熟，如今已經不再只有相關業者看好電動車市場，就連石油大廠道達爾（Total）近日都承認，在這樣的發展下，石油的需求可能即將見頂，未來電動車的商機將不容小覷。
彭博社報導，道達爾的能源經濟學家Joel Couse 表示，隨著電動車市場持續擴大，估計至2030 年時，電動車將佔有新車市場15~30%，石油需求預計將在屆時達到頂峰，之後就不會再出現增長，甚至可能逐漸下滑。
這樣的話從石油主要生產商的口中說出有些令人感到意外，就連彭博新能源財經（BNEF）的主管Colin McKerracher 都表示，道達爾的分析是目前為止最看好電動車產業的預測，甚至超過彭博的預估值。
其實不只是道達爾，荷蘭皇家殼牌（Shell）也已經開始削減石油需求的長期預測。為了因應未來科技的走向，殼牌已經建立一個全新業務部門，針對多種綠能可能造成的經濟效益進行分析。
彭博新能源財經指出，在電動車的製程中，電池是成本中最昂貴的部分，幾乎可以佔到總成本的一半，高昂的成本價格也是造成許多車商在發展電動車時，會選擇高價車款為主打的原因。
然而隨著科技持續發展，電池價格開始逐年下降且價格每年下降約20％，效能持續提升，電動車已經開始能與燃油車在價格及性能上做競爭。儘管在全球汽車銷量中，電動車目前僅佔有約1% 的市場，但許多車商已經注意到這個趨勢，開始投入數十億美元進入電動車市場耕耘。
除了開始進入電動車市場的捷豹（Jaguar）、富豪（Volvo）之外，賓士（Mercedes-Benz）、通用（General）及許多車廠也將在2020 年時推出數十種電動車款，豐田（Toyota）更計劃在2050 年時，淘汰所有燃油車款，汽車市場「雪崩式」改變的時刻即將來到。
彭博新能源財經負責人Michael Liebreich 認為，至2020 年時，將會有120 種以上不同型號的電動車在市面上供消費者選擇，「到了那個時候，燃油車會變成很過時的東西。」
Electric cars are coming fast -- and that’s not just the opinion of carmakers anymore. Total SA, one of the world’s biggest oil producers, is now saying EVs may constitute almost a third of new-car sales by the end of the next decade.
The surge in battery powered vehicles will cause demand for oil-based fuels to peak in the 2030s, Total Chief Energy Economist Joel Couse said at Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s conference in New York on Tuesday. EVs will make up 15 percent to 30 percent of new vehicles by 2030, after which fuel “demand will flatten out,” Couse said. “Maybe even decline.”
Couse’s projection for electric cars is the highest yet by a major oil company and exceeds BNEF’s own forecast, said Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport analysis at Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
“That’s big,” McKerracher said. “That’s by far the most aggressive we’ve seen by any of the majors."
Other oil companies have been trimming their long-term forecasts for oil demand. Royal Dutch Shell Plc Chief Executive Officer Ben van Beurden said in March that oil demand may peak in the late 2020s. It set up a business unit to identify the clean technologies where it could be most profitable.
Electric cars are beginning to compete with gasoline models on both price and performance. The most expensive part of an electric car is the battery, which can make up half the total cost, according to BNEF. The first electric cars to be competitive on price have been in the luxury class, led by Tesla Inc.’s Model S, which is now the best-selling large luxury car in the U.S.
But battery prices are dropping by about 20 percent a year, and automakers have been spending billions to electrify their fleets. Volkswagen AG is targeting 25 percent of its sales to be electric by 2025. Toyota Motor Corp. plans to phase out fossil fuels altogether by 2050.
Electric cars currently make up about 1 percent of global vehicle sales, but traditional carmakers are preparing for transformation. In 2018, Volkswagen plows into electrification with an Audi SUV and the first high-speed U.S. charging network to rival Tesla’s Superchargers. Tata Motors Ltd.’s Jaguar and Volvo Cars both have promising cars on the way too, and by 2020, the avalanche really begins, with Mercedes-Benz, VW, General Motors Co. and others releasing dozens of new models.
“By 2020 there will be over 120 different models of EV across the spectrum,” said Michael Liebreich, founder of Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “These are great cars. They will make the internal combustion equivalent look old fashioned.”
Source:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-25/electric-car-boom-seen-triggering-peak-oil-demand-in-2030s
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