2014-2021年氣體傳感器市場營收預測
空氣質量正成為一項重要的環境問題。污染會降低我們吸入的空氣質量，進而導致身體健康問題。例如糟糕的空氣會加重過敏和呼吸系統疾病，如引發哮喘。此外，某些日常活動可能會釋放出有害氣體，在極端情況下，類似一氧化碳的有害氣體會導致死亡。因此，氣體傳感器吸引了越來越多廠商的興趣。氣體感測並不是一項新技術，集成氣體傳感器的氣體探測設備已經應用於國防和工業安全，並形成了一個高度管制和成熟的市場。但是人類社會面臨的空氣質量問題，以及環境保護意識的不斷增強，為氣體傳感器創造了新的應用和市場機會，包括消費類產品（如智能家居、可穿戴設備和智能手機）、建築物和汽車（室內和車內空氣質量監測）。
根據我們市場調研，目前氣體傳感器市場主要受暖通空調（HVAC）驅動增長，而未來將受消費類應用驅動增長。2014年，氣體傳感器市場規模為5.6億美元，預計2021年將達到9.2億美元，未來五年的複合年增長率為7.3%。如果氣體傳感器在消費類產品中廣泛應用，那麼2021年的市場營收上浮6500萬美元也是可能的。
本報告指出有多種因素驅動氣體傳感器市場增長：
*受到更好的能源管理需求驅動，氣體傳感器在建築市場將實現快速增長，未來五年的複合年增長率為13.6%，2021年市場營收約為2.37億美元。
*醫療行業正需要高靈敏度哮喘檢測傳感器、用於呼吸控制的氧氣傳感器。
*消費類應用，如智能家居、可穿戴設備和智能手機，正在推動新型MEMS氣體 傳感器發展，以降低成本和功耗、減小尺寸。
*由於人們對室外空氣質量控制的渴望，環境保護市場未來五年的複合年增長率高達19%。
*交通運輸市場主要由氧氣傳感器驅動發展，未來的目標是努力減少汽車排放污染。
消費類市場是非常有吸引力的，因為它可以產生很大的市場，當然這取決於用戶使用情況、產品成本和技術成熟度。如今，智能手機行業已經徹底改變了傳感器產業，集成了種類繁多的傳感器。同樣地，氣體傳感器也可以集成於智能手機和可穿戴設備中。例如深圳市卡卓無線信息技術有限公司（K-Free）手機設計方案採用了Cambridge CMOS Sensors（簡稱CCS）的全數字架構MEMS氣體傳感器CCS811。該傳感器可以感測揮發性有機化合物（volatile organic compounds，VOC），如家具產生的甲醛，甚至還能作為警察檢測酒駕的呼吸測試器。
本報告假設了氣體傳感器在消費類應用中可能出現的三種情形：
*現實情形（Realistic scenario）：未來幾年，智能手機集成氣體傳感器的“步伐”緩慢，只有二線和三線智能手機廠商使用氣體傳感器。
*樂觀情形（Optimistic scenario）：2016年，某些主流智能手機集成了氣體傳感器，並在未來五年日益普及。該情形取決於技術成熟度和成本。
* “過山車”情形（“Rollercoaster” scenario）：2016年，某些主流智能手機集成了氣體傳感器，但是一年後，由於沒有明確的用戶需求，氣體傳感器又被剔除。例如三星Galaxy S3首次集成了濕度傳感器，但一年之後發布的Galaxy S4卻剔除了濕度傳感器。
我們的樂觀情形預計2021年氣體傳感器市場的出貨量為3.5億顆。
一個非常分散的市場
氣體傳感器有著廣泛的應用，但是每種應用都有自己的技術要求，如被測氣體類型、靈敏度、選擇性、響應時間、壽命和功耗。每種應用也有自己的商業需求，包括法規、目標價、市場成熟度、競爭情況。
本報告採用獨特的方法來分析氣體傳感器的六大細分市場：
*消費類市場：氣體傳感器集成到消費電子產品中，包括智能家居、可穿戴設備和智能手機
*暖通空調市場：用於室內/車內空氣質量監測的氣體傳感器
*交通運輸市場：用於汽車尾氣測量或重型車輛發動機控制的氣體傳感器
*醫療市場：在治療護理時，用於呼吸分析的氣體傳感器
*國防和工業安全市場
*環境市場：用於監測空氣質量和污染情況的氣體傳感器
氣體傳感器技術和商業需求
氣體傳感器的技術之爭
氣體傳感器技術紛繁複雜，有九種不同的方法。一般情況下，選擇何種氣體傳感器技術取決於價格、尺寸、功耗、靈敏度和響應時間。
金屬氧化物半導體（MOS）技術應用較廣，涵蓋醫療、交通運輸、暖通空調、消費類產品，並且使用壽命長（5~10年）。催化（Catalytic）和電化學（electrochemical）技術是“老”技術，且使用壽命短（5年以下），主要用於國防和工業安全。
光學技術具有最高的精確度和最長的使用壽命，但是由於成本過高和環境惡劣，並沒有廣泛地應用於交通運輸，而是獲得暖通空調的“青睞”，尤其是非色散紅外傳感器（NDIR ）。隨著集成度進一步提高，光學技術還將打開便攜式工業檢測系統的市場。光學技術，如NDIR、傅立葉變換紅外（FTIR）、化學發光（chemiluminescence）和微色譜法（microchromatography），是很準確的，但是較為笨重和昂貴，某些情況下，功耗也較高。如果NDIR採用光電二極管和LED時，可以實現極低的功耗。
MEMS不是一項新的檢測原理，而是一個新的製造平台，使得現有技術產品進一步小型化：
*採用MOS技術的公司：Micronas、Microsens、ams、Synkera、CCS、KWJ Engineering、Figaro
*採用IR技術的公司：CCS、eLichens
*採用色譜法的公司：Spectral Engines、APIX、EcoLogicSense
氣體傳感器技術及相關廠商分佈圖（使用壽命vs. 應用）
新進廠商期望獲得市場份額
消費類市場巨大的需求量是很有吸引力的。對於此類應用，傳感器需要良好的靈敏度、可靠性、低成本、小尺寸和低功耗。MOS技術似乎是成本和尺寸方面的最佳選擇，適合可穿戴設備和智能手機。然而，智能手機中的傳感器越來越多，功耗也變得越來越重要。因此，傳感器還需要非常低的功耗。此外，MOS傳感器的靈敏度也不是很好。好消息是，基於NDIR技術的氣體傳感器在減小尺寸方面取得長足進步，有機會挑戰MOS傳感器在消費類應用領域的地位。目前，NDIR氣體傳感器已經在智能家居產品中獲得應用。
氣體傳感器的新進廠商將帶來基於MEMS和光學集成平台的創新方法，採用無晶圓廠（Fabless）模式，依靠代工廠實現量產。例如，CCS與X-Fab、TSMC合作；Spectral Engines與VTT合作。因此，氣體傳感器為半導體和MEMS代工廠帶來新的商業機會。此外，半導體委外封測代工廠（OSAT）也可以為氣體傳感器提供創新的封裝技術。本報告中也包含一份全面的氣體傳感器新進廠商名單。
Disruptive technologies and emerging applications will make the gas sensor market skyrocket!
GAS SENSORS ON THE VERGE OF MASSIVE MARKET ADOPTION
Air quality is becoming a major concern, and therefore gas sensors are increasingly attracting interest. Gas sensing technologies are not new. Gas sensors embedded in gas detectors for defense and industrial safety applications form a highly regulated and mature market. But the growing awareness of the air quality challenge humankind faces is creating new applications and opportunities. These include gas sensors in consumer products like home devices, wearables and smartphones, or for buildings and cars, including indoor/in-cabin air quality monitoring.
Yole Développement’s Gas Sensor report estimates that the gas sensor market is currently growing, driven by Heating, Ventilation Air Conditioning (HVAC) and future consumer applications. It was worth $560M in 2014 and will reach almost $920M in 2021, at 7.3% CAGR. An upside market of almost $65M in 2021 is possible if gas sensors are widely adopted in consumers products.
There are numerous market drivers that will contribute to the growth:
• Driven by better energy management, the building market will experience 13.6% CAGR for a total market estimated at $237M in 2021.
• The medical industry is looking for very high sensitivity for asthma attack sensors or oxygen sensors for breath control.
• Consumer applications such as wearables and smartphones are driving the development of new gas sensors to reduce cost, power consumption and size with MEMS technologies.
• Driven by the desire for better outdoor air quality control, the environmental market will grow at almost 19% CAGR.
• The transport market is driven by oxygen sensors and future depollution applications.
The consumer market is very attractive as it can drive very large volumes depending on user case adoption, cost and technical maturity. The smartphone industry has revolutionized the sensor industry as mobile applications today aggregate ever more sensors. Gas sensors could be the next to be integrated in smart phones and/or wearables. As we believe that user cases are crucial for wide adoption of gas sensors in consumer products, we have built a list of potential applications and benchmarked them.
Our report describes three different scenarios for the consumer application:
- Realistic scenario: for the next few years, we foresee slow adoption of gas sensors by mobile manufacturers. Only Tier 2 and 3 smartphone manufacturers will embed gas sensors in mobiles.
- Optimistic scenario: we assume integration of gas sensors in a major smartphone model in 2016 and growing adoption for the next five years. This scenario is dependent on technical maturity and cost.
- “Rollercoaster” scenario: we simulate integration of gas sensors in a major smartphone model in 2016. But, one year later, the sensor will be removed by the company due to the absence of a clear user case. This case study is similar to the adoption and removal of the humidity sensor in the Samsung Galaxy S4.
Our optimistic scenario estimates a market volume of 350 million units in 2021.
AN EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED MARKET
There are plenty of gas sensor applications, each with their own technical requirements, such as the gases to be measured, sensitivity and selectivity, response time, lifetime and power consumption. Each also has its own business requirements including regulations, target price, maturity of the market and competition.
Yole Développement analysts have developed a dedicated methodology to build our unique market segmentation. Both technical and behavioral criteria are used in order to create a market segment. Consequently each segment includes players that have the same needs.
Yole Développement has classified gas sensors in six different market segments:
- Consumer: Gas sensors embedded in consumer products including home devices, wearable electronics and mobile phones
- HVAC: Gas sensors used for indoor/in-cabin air quality monitoring
- Transport: Gas sensors used for exhaust gas measurement or in engine control for heavy duty vehicles
- Medical: Gas sensors used for breath analysis in ventilation and point of care
- Defense and Industrial Safety
- Environment: Gas sensors used to monitor air quality and pollution peaks
TECHNOLOGY BATTLE: MORE THAN SIZE MATTERS
Gas sensing technology is a complex field with nine different approaches. In general, the right selection for gas sensing technology will depend on price, form factor, power consumption, sensitivity and response time.
Semiconductor technology (MOS) has the largest range of applications, spanning medical, transport, HVAC, consumer, and longest lifetime, from 5-10 years. Catalytic and electrochemical are ‘old’ technologies with short lifetimes, below five years, mostly used for defense and industrial applications.
Optical technologies have the highest accuracy and longest lifetime but are not widely used in transport because the environment is tough and cost pressure is high. They are largely used in HVAC, especially Non Dispersive Infrared sensors (NDIR). Further integration will open the way to portable systems for industrial applications. Optical technologies such as NDIR, Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR), chemiluminescence, and microchromatography are very accurate but bulky and costly with high power consumption in some cases. NDIR is an optical technology that can achieve very low power consumption when photodiodes are used with LEDs.
MEMS is not a new detection principle but a new manufacturing platform that allows further miniaturization of existing technologies such as:
- MOS, as developed by Micronas, Microsens, ams, Synkera, CCMOS, KWJ Engineering, Figaro
- IR, developed by CCMOS and eLichens
- Chromatography, developed by Spectral Engines, APIX and EcoLogicSense
NEW PLAYERS WANT MARKET SHARE
The consumer market’s large volumes are hugely attractive. For this application, sensors require good sensitivity, reliability, and low cost, small form factor and low power budget. MOS seems to be the best candidate as cost and size fit the requirements for wearables and smartphones. However, as smartphones get more sensors, power consumption is becoming critical and sensors therefore need to be very low power today. Furthermore, MOS sensor sensitivity isn’t very good. Surprisingly, with the latest achievements in size reduction of optical gas sensors based on NDIR, this technology is now challenging MOS technology for consumer applications. NDIR sensors are already used in home products.
Newcomers in gas sensing bring very innovative approaches based on existing MEMS and optical integration platforms. These companies are often fabless, relying on a foundry partner for volume production. For example, CCMOS works with X-Fab and TSMC, and Spectral Engines works with VTT. Gas sensors can therefore be new opportunities for semiconductor and MEMS front-end foundries looking for more business. These sensors are often bulky, so Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test (OSAT) companies can also supply innovative packaging technologies. The report provides an extensive list of newcomers entering the gas sensing market.
Source:YOLE
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