真乄科技業的頂尖投資團隊

除了炒作和喧囂，傳感器技術已經迎來汽車產業的最大變革——自動駕駛汽車（Autonomous Vehicles），它為傳感器供應商和半導體產業描繪了一幅美妙的畫面。

多種傳感技術將確保各級廠商都能享受市場機遇

傳感器技術是自動駕駛汽車（無人駕駛汽車）成為現實的原動力。汽車製造商都在競相研發安全自駕汽車，但是這場“競賽”的路程漫長，分為多個階段（如下圖），涉及多種傳感器。

不同自動化程度的汽車發展情況

超聲波傳感器、雷達和多攝像頭系統已經集成在高端汽車中，預計未來十年，遠距離攝像頭、激光雷達、微測輻射熱計，以及準確的航位推算將進入汽車。這些傳感器將協同工作，確保每項技術互相依賴、避免衝突。雖然，傳感器僅僅是自動駕駛汽車的一部分，但是市場前景非常好。

傳感器技術路線圖和相關的自動駕駛功能

2030年自動駕駛汽車中的傳感器模塊市場規模將達360億美元

自動駕駛汽車的必備監測模塊（傳感器、軟件、電子控制單元、數據管理、GPS和無線連接）需要高效的、可靠的器件。應用於汽車的超聲波傳感器、攝像頭和雷達技術逐漸成熟，越來越多的汽車集成這些傳感器以掌握定價權。汽車產業目前主要集中研發力量於激光雷達和航位推算系統，因為這些可以增加新功能以改善自動駕駛體驗。Yole預計，2015年自動駕駛汽車中的傳感器模塊市場規模為26億美元，2030年將達到360億美元，複合年增長率為19%。

2015-2030年自動駕駛汽車中的傳感器模塊市場

當前最先進的自動駕駛商業車嵌入了17個傳感器（這里傳感器僅指應用於自動駕駛功能），Yole預計2030年將超過29個傳感器。現在有兩大傳感器業務占主導地位：超聲波傳感器和全景攝像頭。這兩個業務的市場規模達到24億美元，其中超聲波傳感器佔85%市場份額（出貨量）。到2030年，全景攝像頭市場將達到120億美元；超聲波傳感器將達到87億美元；遠距離雷達將達到79億美元；短距離雷達將達到50億美元。總體而言，2030年自動駕駛汽車中的傳感器模塊市場規模為360億美元。

關鍵的傳感器技術逐漸成熟，但是其它地方還存在瓶頸

傳感器技術日益成熟，但是嵌入式數據處理和管理都還在研發中。新興廠商（如Mobileye, nVidia和Kalray）提供先進的ECU，以挑戰老牌廠商（如東芝和英飛凌）。本報告詳細介紹了最先進的自動駕駛汽車技術，包括超聲波傳感器、近距離雷達、遠距離雷達、激光雷達、紅外傳感器、航位推算傳感器，以及相關數據管理等。

自動駕駛汽車中五大基礎模塊

未來，汽車將慢慢地從“傳統機械、燃料動力和高功率電子汽車”演變成“能夠預見許多重要情況的超靈敏電動機器”。總體目標是減少由於人類駕駛失誤造成的災害。

傳感器技術將您的汽車變成一個超級英雄車

雖然汽車市場擁有很大的希望。但是，誰將會受益呢？自動駕駛汽車中的傳感器市場規模很可能會迅速增長。同時，算法和軟件也有望在未來幾年內增長。我們相信，產業鏈價值遲早將從傳感器流向ECU和軟件，從而導致新的專業化廠商出現，進而分一杯羹。

自動駕駛趨勢從根本上改變產業格局，但是連帶影響不會立即顯現

汽車製造商和汽車設備製造商正面臨著一個充滿多種威脅的新時代，新競爭者的業務從電動車和混合動力車（EV/HEV）到打車服務（如Uber）和消費電子。Yole認為，這種“多條戰線”競爭會導致汽車產業發生深刻變化。隨著20世紀的電子技術發展，汽車已經變得更快、更安全、更高效，並且互聯性加強。通常，一輛汽車上的電子產品組件數量已經超過30%。

2030年，所有上述技術的發展都將有可能促使半自動汽車的大規模市場應用。我們預計2030年二級（level 2）自動汽車銷售量為2200萬輛，三級（level 3）自動汽車銷售量為1000萬輛，四級（level 4）自動汽車銷售量為100萬輛。自動駕駛汽車出現將創造一個全新的市場現象，這可能動搖汽車產業的根基。現在，人們都在猜測自動駕駛汽車技術是否可以創建全新的子行業，如汽車共享和按需服務。主要汽車製造商都充分認識到，這種技術破壞性情況是可能發生的。由於來自汽車共享和按需服務公司的早期投資，因此可能導致自動駕駛汽車的期初銷售提升，而全球普通汽車的銷售可能停滯。不管如何，有一件事情是肯定的：2008年金融危機之後，汽車產業感覺就像是在風暴之眼。

BEYOND THE HYPE AND TUMULT, SENSOR TECHNOLOGY HAS USHERED IN ONE OF THE CAR INDUSTRY’S BIGGEST EVOLUTIONS – ONE THAT WILL ENSURE A BRIGHT FUTURE FOR SENSOR PROVIDERS AND THE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY!

Multiple sensing technologies will ensure many market opportunities for Tier 1 players, Tier 2 players, and newcomers alike
Sensor technologies are a driving force in making fully autonomous vehicles a reality. Automakers are racing to develop safe self-driving cars, but this race is a distance run more than a sprint, where multiple automation stages will imply multiple sensors. Ultrasonic sensors, radars, and multiple cameras systems are already embedded in high-end vehicles -- and within 10 years, they could also include long-range cameras, LIDAR, micro bolometer and accurate dead reckoning. These devices will work concurrently and each technology will support another to ensure codependency and avoid concerns. Even though sensors are only part of the puzzle, their market opportunities are promising.

By 2030, sensors for autonomous cars could be worth $36B!
The necessary building blocks for monitoring an autonomous car (sensors, software, Electronic Control Unit (ECU)), data management, GPS and connectivity) require efficient, reliable devices. Ultrasonic sensors, cameras, and radar technologies are all mature enough now and priced right for embedding in more and more cars for such purpose. Industry efforts are now focused on LIDAR and dead reckoning systems that will add new features to the autonomous driving experience.  Yole Développement (Yole) expects a $2.6B market value in 2015 for sensors in autonomous cars, reaching $36B by 2030 at a CAGR of 19%.
 
Currently, the most advanced commercial car with autonomous features embeds in the order of 17 sensors.  Yole anticipates 29+ sensors by 2030. Today, two sensor businesses dominate: ultrasonic sensors and cameras for surround. Together they are worth a $2.4B market value, but ultrasonic sensors comprise 85% of current market volume. By 2030, cameras for surround will lead the market at $12B, followed by ultrasound sensors and long-range radar ($8.7B and $7.9B respectively), and then short-range radar ($5B).  Overall 2030 market value is estimated at $36B.

The key sensor technologies are mature, but bottlenecks exist elsewhere
Sensor technologies are mature, but embedded data processing and management are still under construction, with emerging players like Mobileye, nVidia, and Kalray providing advanced ECU challenging the established players like Toshiba or Infineon. This report details the state-of-the-art technology inherent to ultrasonic sensors, short-range radar, long-range radar, LIDAR, and dead reckoning sensors, along with the associated data management. 
 
Future cars will slowly evolve from traditional mechanical, fuel-powered, and high-powered electronic vehicles into electrical-powered, ultra-sensitive machines that can anticipate many critical situations. The overall goal is to replace the last remaining cause of driving errors:  human beings.

Yes, the automotive market holds great promise.  But who will profit?  The market value for sensors in autonomous vehicles is likely to grow rapidly, but a strong focus on computing and software is expected in the coming years, with more powerful ECUs and sensor fusion for improved reliability and efficiency.  We believe that sooner or later the value will flow from sensors to ECU and software, leading to the emergence of new specialized players who will take a slice of the pie.

Autonomous trends are radically changing the landscape, but knock-on effects won't be visible for a few years.
Automakers and automotive equipment makers are facing a new era with multiple threats, from newcomers arising from the convergence of the EV/HEV movement, to service industry growth fueled by companies like Uber, to the consumer electronics business.  Yole believes this “multi-front battle” will lead to a profound change in the auto industry’s landscape. With the advent of electronics during the 20th century’s second half, cars have become faster, safer, more efficient, and increasingly connected. For proof, consider that the average car today consists of more than 30% electronics.

All of these evolutions will likely lead to mass-market adoption of semi-autonomous vehicles by 2030.  We expect more than 22M units (18% of all vehicles sold) of level-2 vehicles and 10M units of level-3 vehicles by 2030, along with 38M units of level-2 vehicles and 1M units of Level-4 vehicles. This projected adoption rate of autonomous vehicles could create an entirely new phenomenon that could shake the auto industry’s very foundations. Even now, people are wondering whether autonomous vehicle technology could create new sub-industries, i.e. car-sharing and car-on-demand services. The main players are fully aware that such disruptive scenarios are possible, and that they could lead to a higher initial volume due to the up-front investment from car-sharing and car-on-demand companies, followed by a possible stagnation in global car shipment volumes. One thing is certain: after the 2008 crisis, the automotive industry feels like being in the eye of the storm!

Source:YOLE