The long-awaited growth of the market for electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrids (HEVs) is now happening. More than 3 million vehicles were sold last year, and EV shipments doubled. According to the latest report from Yole Développement, Power Electronics for EV/HEV 2016: Market, Innovations and Trends, we can expect 12 million electric cars and hybrid cars to be sold in 2021. By that time this will represent about 20% of the car industry’s sales volume.
This will have a major impact on the power module industry. In 2021, EV/HEV demand will represent almost half of total power module market value, and also 14% of inverter market value. This is massive!
Such growth is made possible by several changes in the landscape. Governments are pushing the adoption of such technologies through regulations and incentives. The Chinese government is at the forefront of these policies. The other major changes originate from strategic moves by several carmakers, such as BYD and Tesla. They are using new regulations and technology changes to bring innovations and new business models to the automotive market. This creates new business opportunities and significant market appeal.
The pressure on manufacturing and industrial development is also very important. The challenge is to decrease power module cost, while increasing their efficiency and power density. This is necessary for cars to be affordable, with enough space – for example, batteries can’t take all the non-seat room – and adequate driving range. Such cars are now arriving on the market, both from specific high end brands like Tesla, but also from GM, Nissan, Audi and several Chinese companies.
The power electronic industry sees this opportunity. In the inverter market, for example, Siemens is making a transition across from the train industry. Power modules and power device makers are doing the same. The battle for market share is fierce horizontally, among producers at each level of integration, and vertically, with companies looking to take added value from their suppliers or customers. The big trend is car makers gradually acquiring power module design know-how, adding that knowledge to the value brought by their car design expertise and branding. All the main manufacturers are doing this, be they in Germany, France, USA, Japan or China. According our report, within five years car makers will be able to bring power module design and in some case part of the manufacturing and assembly under their management.
Increasing power density is one main technological challenge still to be conquered. Volume constraints are formidable inside a car, and power is already high. Innovations are needed at all levels of power electronics, namely in the inverter, power module, and power device, and also the battery. Energy density must be enhanced to achieve longer driving ranges, while at the same time decreasing battery pack price, for electric cars to become generally useful.
At inverter level, the general trend is to increase integration. Each electrification type demands a specific solution. In the case of mild hybrid vehicles, where volume is very limited and power is relatively low, cars are increasingly equipped with a smart motor solution combining an inverter and motor. For full hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles, other solutions are employed, such as a “centralized power electronics box”. For battery electric vehicles, many different integrated solutions are being developed, for instance in-wheel drive. This report presents and analyses the different technological solutions for each electrification type.
Truly, the car industry is turning electric.
More information about Power Electronics for EV/HEV 2016: Market, Innovations and Trends.
Source: www.yole.fr
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