2015~2021 扇出型晶圓級封裝（FOWLP）設備市場預測
隨著扇出型晶圓級封裝（FOWLP）應用從移動/無線和汽車電子“蔓延”至微機電系統（MEMS）、射頻SiP和醫療電子，這對於扇出型封裝設備和材料供應商來說，充滿了豐富的“有利可圖”的商業機會。
海量的投資浪潮是上述趨勢的證明。 2015~2016年是FOWLP行業發展的創紀錄期，多家公司都投入研發力量和資金。其中，台積電是最大的投資者，花費約10億美元以獲得蘋果（Apple）公司的訂單。安靠（Amkor）、力成科技（PTI）、日月光（ASE）、星科金朋（STATS ChipPAC）和Deca Technologies是其它重要的FOWLP廠商，要么新建生產線，要么擴大現有的產能。雖然2017年不會有之前的投資力度，但是新舉措的潛力依然很大。產能擴大是不少廠商考慮的選項；事實上，如果“高密度”應用（如處理器、存儲器）的扇出型封裝市場不斷增長，那麼兩年內的產能擴大是必需的。新的應用也將獲得一些市場份額，正在進入大批量生產中。因此，第二波投資應盡快發生，否則如果FOWLP市場繼續增長，廠商將無法滿足FOWLP市場需求。
為了讓大家對FOWLP設備和材料的新投資和未來市場有更清晰的了解，本報告重點介紹了FOWLP的關鍵工藝步驟。我們認為這些工藝步驟對於FOWLP平台至關重要：載體鍵合/解鍵合（carrier bonding/debonding）、芯片佈局（chip placement）、重佈線工藝（RDL processing）、塑封成型（molding）。
扇出型晶圓級封裝設備和材料市場將實現40%以上的複合年增長率
實現上述工藝步驟的設備包括全自動鍵合機、光刻機、濺射設備、塑封成型設備、解鍵合設備、旋塗機/顯影機等。 FOWLP設備市場預計在2021年將達到6.94億美元，2015~2021年的複合年增長率為42.5%。
相似地，FOWLP材料市場預計在2021年將達到1.48億美元，2015~2021年的複合年增長率為40%。本報告中研究的關鍵材料包括RDL電介質和光致抗蝕劑、封裝成型塑料、玻璃載體等。
扇出型晶圓級封裝（FOWLP）材料市場預測
受益於FOWLP平台的成功，所有FOWLP設備和材料類型都有顯著的增長。然而，市場挑戰和格局與各種工藝步驟是截然不同的，市場相當多元化。
例如，由於設備的高價值和光致抗蝕劑的大量使用，用於圖案化再分佈層（RDL）的光刻設備和材料佔據最大的市場份額。在光刻工藝中，為了實現較好的分辨率，使用“步進（stepper）”型光刻機進行FOWLP再分佈層（RDL）圖案化，但是其成本高昂，製造商面臨降低價格的強大壓力。該市場目前由Ultratech公司（台積電的供應商）和Rudolph公司（OSAT的供應商）主導。我們期待其它設備廠商也能滲透該市場，但可能採用不同的方法/技術，例如激光蒸發法（Laser Ablation）。
其它工藝步驟，如塑封成型工藝，可能更容易被單個廠商控制市場。在這個標誌性的工藝中，封裝材料方面市場幾乎完全由Nagase Chemtex公司一家佔有（約90%市場份額）。 Nagase Chemtex公司的主導地位源於其研發的優質化學品，以及與主要封測廠商（如Nanium和STATS ChipPAC）的長期合作。液態塑封料（Liquid Molding Compound，LMC）目前是首選的FOWLP塑封成型材料。然而，為了打破Nagase Chemtex公司的壟斷並降低成本，其它材料供應商正在努力開發顆粒型塑封料（Granular-type Molding Compound，GMC）。預計到2021年，GMC將佔據29%的市場份額。在設備方面，廠商更加多元化，APIC、Yamada、Towa是FOWLP關鍵塑封工藝設備供應商。
面板問題：聚焦製造機遇和挑戰
扇出型製造工藝轉移至面板上的潛在影響。從晶圓到大面積的面板，對於降低芯片封裝成本是至關重要的。然而，必須滿足某些標準，並且FOWLP面板的廣泛應用將面臨一些挑戰：大量資金投入、設備研發、標準化、多源可用性、市場接受度、翹曲控制和芯片佈局精度等。
面板級扇出型封裝 - 技術挑戰
對於一些常規工藝步驟（如電鍍、PVD和切割），大多數設備很容易在市場上購買，並且可以從PCB、平板顯示器或LCD行業中改造獲得。然而，先進封裝的一些關鍵工藝步驟（如光刻）則需要開發新的設備，以便支持厚膠光刻、面板處理能力、曝光區域面積、焦深。
鑑於先進封裝中面臨的挑戰需要面板工藝解決方案，因此吸引著PCB、LCD和光伏行業的設備廠商進入該市場。新進入者將有能力將現有的基於面板的工藝設備應用於面板級先進封裝領域。在材料方面，主要的材料供應商將使用其目前市場上已有的產品，並優化它們以滿足面板級先進封裝的要求。
What to expect from manufacturing’s most dynamic advanced packaging platform?
2015 - 2016 SAW LARGE INVESTMENTS IN FOWLP
With FOWLP adoption spreading from mobile/wireless and automotive to MEMS, RF SiP, and medical, a wealth of lucrative business opportunities exist for fan-out equipment and materials suppliers.
A massive investment wave is the first proof of this trend. 2015 - 2016 was a record-setting period for FOWLP industry development, with investments coming from a variety of companies. TSMC was the biggest investor, with ~ $1B supplied mainly to capture Apple’s market. Amkor, PTI, ASE, STATS ChipPAC, and Deca Technologies are other notable players that invested to either start a manufacturing line or enlarge existing capacity. 2017 will not see the same investment level, but the potential for new moves is high. Capacity enlargement is still an option for players considering it; in fact it may be required in two years if fan-out keeps growing in high-density applications. Newcomers will gain some market share, necessitating entry into volume production. However, with 4.5M wafers to be produced in 2021, capacity must also be increased by TSMC and/or other actors. Therefore, a second wave of investment must occur soon or capacity will not be sufficient to address the FOWLP market if it continues growing.
In order to provide a clear picture of new investments and future markets for equipment and materials, this report focuses on FOWLP’s key process steps, which we believe are most essential to the platform: carrier bonding/debonding, chip placement, RDL processing, and molding.
FOWLP EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS MARKETS WILL REACH AN IMPRESSIVE 40% CAGR
The equipment that enables the aforementioned process steps includes pick-and-place bonders, lithography tools, sputter tools, molding tools, carrier debonding tools, and coaters/developers.
The total FOWLP equipment market is expected to reach ~$694M in 2021 at an impressive CAGR 2015 - 2021 of 42.5%.
Similarly, FOWLP’s total materials market is expected to reach ~$148M in 2021 at a CAGR 2015 - 2021 of 40%. Key materials studied in this report include RDL dielectrics and photoresist, molding compound, and glass carriers.
Growth will be significant for all equipment and material types, indicating broad benefit from the FOWLP platform’s success. However, the challenges and market landscapes are very different from process step to process step, and the market is quite diversified.
For example, lithography for patterning RDL represents one of the largest market components thanks to the equipment’s high value and the large volume of photoresist. In lithography, a “stepper”-type litho tool is used for FOWLP RDL patterning in order to achieve low-resolution (down to 2µm today), but its cost is high and manufacturers are under strong pressure to reduce their prices. This market is currently dominated by Ultratech, which supplies TSMC, and Rudolph which has enjoyed success with OSATs. We expect other players to penetrate this area, potentially with different approaches like laser ablation.
Other steps, i.e. mold compound processing, may be more prone to domination by a single player. This symbolic step, which creates a reconstituted wafer out of a mold in which the IC are encapsulated, is almost entirely owned by Nagase Chemtex (~90% market share) on the materials side. Nagase Chemtex’s dominance is the result of the complex approach such chemicals require in order to develop an optimum solution, and the long history Nagase has with the main producers (Nanium and STATS ChipPAC). Liquid molding compound (LMC) is currently the preferred FOWLP mold material, however, to break Nagase’s monopoly and reduce cost, other materials suppliers are working to develop granular-type molding (GMC) materia
ls. By 2021, GMC is expected to have 29% of the total market. On the equipment side, things are more diversified, with APIC, Yamada, and Towa the key compression molding-tool suppliers for FOWLP.
THE PANEL QUESTION: FOCUSING ON MANUFACTURING OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES
This report also focuses on the potential impact of moving fan-out manufacturing onto panel. Going from wafer to large-panel format is essential to reducing package cost per chip. However, certain criteria must be fulfilled and certain challenges overcome for FOWLP-on-panel’s broad adoption – criteria linked to large capex investment, equipment readiness, standardization, multisource availability, and most importantly, market availability to keep the panel line running. There are technical challenges too, i.e. warpage control, die placement accuracy, and fabrication of sub 10/10um lines on large panels.
For some process steps (i.e. plating, PVD, and dicing), most of the tools are readily available on the market and can be adapted from the PCB, flat-panel display, or LCD industries, and are likely to be reused for producing panels. However, some key process steps (i.e. lithography) inherent to advanced packaging necessitate developing new tool capabilities in order to support thick-resist lithography, panel-handling capability, exposure field size, and depth of focus.
Given the remaining challenges requiring solutions for panel processes in advanced packaging, there will be huge business opportunities that could attract new equipment entrants from the PCB, LCD, and PV industries; entrants that might have the ability to apply existing panel-based tools for panel-scale packaging technologies.
On the materials side, the trend is that the key materials suppliers will use their current market-ready products for LCD and advanced packaging applications, and optimize them to meet panel package requirements.
報告中涉及的公司：3D-Plus, 3M, AGC, Amkor, Analog Devices, Akrometrix, Apple, Applied Materials, ASE, ASM, Besi, Boschmann, Brewer Science, Broadcom, Bosch, Camtek, Corning, Dialog Semiconductor, Dow, EVGroup, Fico Molding, Freescale (NXP), Fogale, Fujiflm, HD Microsystems, Henkel, Hi Silicon, Hitachi Chemicals, Hoya, Huawei, Ibiden, IME, Infneon, Intel, JSR, Limtec, Mediatek, Medtronic, Mitsui Chemicals, Nagase ChemteX, Nanium, Nanometrics, Nepes, Nitto Denko, Nokia, NXP, Plan Optik AG, Oerlikon (Evatec), Platform Specialty Products, Qualcomm, Rudolph Technologies, Samsung, SEMCO, SEMPRIUS, Shinko Electric, SPIL, STATS ChipPAC (JCET), STMicroelectronics, Schott, Screen, SPTS Technologies (an Orbotech company), Shin-Etsu, Sumitomo, SUSS MicroTec AG, TEL-NEXX, TSMC, TOK, Toray Chemical, Towa, Unovis, Ultratech, ULVAC, Ushio, UTAC, Yamada等。
Source:YOLE
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