由於中國半導體市場的強勁增長和政府對先進封裝的大力支持，預計未來幾年，中國先進封裝市場的複合年增長率為16%，到2020年將達到46億美元。
是什麼推動中國先進封裝市場成長？
中國擁有全球最多的人口，併其經濟規模還將以較高的速度（超過6%）增長，預計2020年將達到16萬億美元。同時，未來幾年的人均收入增長（購買力增強）將確保中國仍然是主要的消費市場。因此，任何企業都不能忽視中國。
中國在主要電子產品方面擁有顯著的市場。事實上，約有一半以上的主要電子產品都在中國消費。2014年，中國智能手機、液晶顯示器、筆記本電腦/平板電腦、可穿戴市場在全球市場中的佔比分別為：81%、63%、71%和47%。2014~2020年，全球IC市場的複合年增長率為4%，而同一時期，中國IC市場的複合年增率為7%，除中國以外的其它地區的複合年增長率為2.5%。預計中國IC市場將在2020年佔據全球市場規模的40%。
IC市場預測：中國市場的複合年增長率約為7%，而其它地區僅為2.5%
中國先進封裝的晶圓數量預測
目前中國IC芯片消耗量與其生產量有著巨大的差距。2015年，中國生產的IC芯片數量僅佔其消耗量的12.5%。因此，中國IC芯片進口額超過石油，長期居各類進口產品之首。中國認為，集成電路產業是一項重要的戰略佈局。中國政府正通過提供資金和政策積極發展集成電路產業，使中國成為全球IC設計和製造中心。
本報告介紹了中國半導體產業生態系統情況，並詳細論述了中國先進封裝市場。同時，本報告還介紹了中國半導體前景、市場驅動力、關鍵廠商和供應鏈演變，詳細論述中國政府對IC產業的支持方式，包括各家私募基金情況及投資細節。總體來說，本報告將幫助您理解中國IC市場的機遇和挑戰，並協助您制定企業發展戰略，最大限度地提高自己的市場份額，特別是在先進封裝領域。
去年，中國先進封裝生態系統產生超過10億美元的投資，未來將會更多……
目前，中國有超過100家公司涉足半導體封裝和組裝領域。幾乎全球主要的IDM和封測廠商都在中國設有封裝工廠，以獲得成本優勢。在中國進行封裝和組裝的IC芯片中，有很多產品的出貨量來自於小廠商，他們主要從事低引腳數的芯片封裝，且專注於中國市場。大多數公司都集成在長三角地區，包括江蘇、上海、浙江等省市，還有一些分佈於珠三角地區，如廣東省。
本報告涉及128家中國半導體封裝和組裝廠商，以及全球佈局的IDM後端封測廠商。其中，17家（13%）涉及先進封裝領域，半數是中國企業。中國主要的封測廠商都具有先進封裝能力，包括長電科技、華天科技、通富微電和晶方半導體。
中國具備先進封裝技術的企業分佈情況
中國主要的設計公司分佈情況
中國先進封裝產業實現了巨大的飛躍：2015年，長電科技以7.8億美元收購了星科金鵬（STATS ChipPAC）。這項交易改變了產業格局，使得長電科技躍升至全球封測廠商排名第四位。其他值得關注的有：華天科技收購美國FlipChip International（FCI），通富微電收購AMD在中國和馬來西亞的後端工廠。
我們預計，2016年中國先進封裝市場規模約為25億美元，到2020年將達到46億美元，複合年增率為16%。同一時期，全球先進封裝市場的複合年增長率為7%。
2020年，中國總的晶圓凸點（wafer bumping）產能將達到800萬片（等效12英寸），複合年增長率為18%。2015年，中國8英寸晶圓凸點產能超過12英寸。然而，我們發現中國12寸晶圓凸點產能正在大幅增長，主要是受12英寸銅柱和WLCSP產線驅動。銅柱的增長來源於移動/無線傳感器，而WLCSP的增長來源於CMOS圖像傳感器和指紋傳感器。此外，我們發現金凸點產能的增長，以滿足中國對高性能TV顯示驅動器的需求，如4K2K顯示。
中國本土設備和材料供應商
中國封測廠商和代工廠正迅速地建立起自己的先進封裝能力，但中國本土設備和材料供應商仍然遠遠落後於全球領先廠商。這些國外廠商目前在先進封裝設備和材料領域起著主導地位。現在的問題是，未來五年這種狀況是否能繼續維持？國外廠商是否看到中國先進封裝的契機和威脅（中國本土供應商）？中國先進封裝設備和材料市場有多大？中國本土廠商都涉足了哪些設備/材料？以及策略是什麼？
Driven by a strong semiconductor market outlook and aggressive investment in advanced packaging capability fueled by strong government support, advanced packaging revenue in China is expected to reach US$ 4.6 billion in 2020, against US$ 2.2 billion in 2015, announces Yole Développement (Yole). This market is showing an impressive 16% CAGR during this period.
China has the world’s largest population, and its economy will continue to grow at a high pace: the economists predict a 6% growth, reaching around US$16 trillion by 2020. Also, an increase in per capita income (more purchasing power) will ensure China remains a dominant market in the coming years. Today, no business can afford to ignore China…
Under this context, the “More than Moore” market research and strategy consulting company, Yole explores the advanced packaging industry in China and details, in its latest advanced packaging report entitled “Status & Prospects for the Advanced Packaging Industry in China”, the status of this industry, its market drivers and key market data and technology trends. Yole’s analysts propose a clear vision of the Chinese government commitment within the advanced packaging industry in China and point out the huge China’s IC investments fund. Business opportunities, technical challenges and more are also part of Yole’s market & technology analysis.
China commands a significant market for key electronic products. In fact, over half of all key electronic products are consumed in China. In 2014, the Chinese smartphone, LCD, notebook/tablet, and wearable markets were around 81%, 63%, 71%, and 47% of the global market, respectively. The global IC market will grow by a CAGR of 4% from 2014 - 2020, while the Chinese IC market will grow by 7% over the same period. According to Yole, the Chinese IC market is expected to reach about US$149 billion by 2020, around 40% of the total IC market.
“There is a huge gap between China’s IC consumption and its manufacturing,” commentsSantosh Kumar, Senior Technology & Market Analyst at Yole. And he details: “In 2015, China produced only 12.5% roughly of the IC it consumes, and the gap between IC consumption and production is about US$91 billion. Currently, IC is China’s #1 import commodity, exceeding oil.”
China considers the IC industry to be a key strategic sector. The Chinese government is making a significant effort through funding and a national IC policy, with an aggressive growth strategy to make China an IC design and manufacturing hub. The goal by 2030 is to become the global leader in all primary IC industrial supply chain segments.
The Chinese government has employed a multi-pronged strategy to support domestic IC industry development in order to achieve the goal of becoming the global leader in all primary IC industrial supply chain segments by 2030. Over the last few decades the Chinese government has supported the domestic IC industry, but with limited success. One key reason for failure was the bureaucratic approach to resource allocation, which was by nature inefficient. This time around, the government is adopting a market-based approach where funding is available for investment in the form of equity investments rather than subsidies in invested companies. The goal is to generate return on investment while simultaneously aligning with government policy.
Out of more than 200 firms, there are 128 companies having significant advanced packaging & assembly (A&P) operations in China. Yole’s analysts identified around 147 plants all over China, mostly based in Jiangsu (43), Guangdong (30) and Shanghai (22) regions.
In this part of the globe, more than 50% of A&P plants belongs to IDMs .
A number of Taiwan-HQ OSAT plants are concentrated in Jiangsu, especially in the Suzhou Industry Park. Indeed global OSATs such as Amkor Technology and SPIL are investing in advanced packaging capability of their own Chinese operations: China (Shanghai) operation is the Amkor’s second-largest factory by revenue.
The advanced packaging market growth is led by JCET/STATSChipPAC, Huatian, NFME & China WLCSP. And the Chinese advanced packaging market is offering a wide range of platforms including:
- Flip-chip technology is the largest advanced packaging market segment in China reaching US$ 1,8 billion in 2015. The Flip-chip market is covering bumping and assembly steps.
“We see a huge ramping of bumping capacity in China, especially by Chinese players with 12” Cu pillar process,” comments Santosh Kumar from Yole. “This growth is mainly supported by the Flip-chip industry in China showing a 16% CAGR between 2015 and 2020”.
Flip-chip platform is followed by WLCSP technology with US$ 343 million in 2015 as well. - Fan-out and 2.5/3D platforms are only emerging in China and will have less than 1% market share by 2020.
Under its latest advanced packaging report, Yole’s advanced packaging team points out the key market drivers of this industry. They list:
- Long-term growth in China IC industry
- Aggressive mergers & acquisitions
- Numerous Chinese government initiatives
- Investments led by global OSATs
This analysis also gives an overview of China’s semiconductor ecosystem and discusses in detail the country’s advanced packaging market. A detailed description of this analysis is available on i-micronews.com, advanced packaging reports section.
資料來源:YOLE
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