2014/03/31 IHS：2014年全球PV裝機量可達46GW－真乄科技業的頂尖投資團隊

根據市調機構IHS的調查報告，受到中國與日本兩大市場近期政策變化影響，全球太陽能光電(PV)系統裝機量將在2014年成長22%。
IHS PV需求追蹤服務針對100多個國家進行每季的PV裝機量調查，預計2014年全球PV裝機量將成長至46GW，較2013年10月的預測數字更高5GW。

有鑑於中國和日本近期的PV政策變化，IHS公司提高了全球PV裝機量預測數字。

中國國家發展和改革委員會(NDRC)日前宣佈將增加地面安裝PV計劃的目標，以及其總裝機量目標，這同時也是IHS提高其預測數字的關鍵因素。

「IHS公司先前曾經表示懷疑中國政府是否有能力在2014年達成8GW屋頂太陽能計劃目標，」IHS公司太陽能研究資深總監Ash Sharma表示，「雖然IHS仍預期這一目標將無法實現，但中國最近宣佈將重點轉移至地面安裝計劃以及增加6GW部份的裝機量目標，使我們提高對於2014年的預測。」

IHS公司預測，中國在2014年的屋頂太陽能計劃將有4.8GW的裝機量，以及8GW的地面安裝計劃──較 NRDC的目標更高2GW。相較於2013年10GW的總裝機量，中國今年的總裝機量將達到13GW。

歐洲PV裝機量下滑的趨勢預計將延續至2014年。根據IHS的最新預測，中國今年的PV裝機量將首度超越整個歐洲。

2014年歐洲PV裝機量預計將下降至9.7GW，使其成為在2011年達到19GW裝機量高峰後出現的第三年下滑。隨著德國與烏克蘭(由於在克里米亞的政治不確定性)近來裝機量的減少，IHS同時也下修對於2014年歐洲裝機量的預測約700GW。

「儘管歐洲政府對於PV的支持力度持續降低，但隨著世界各地情況不斷改善，全球PV裝機量仍持續成長，」Sharma補充說，「IHS對於全球PV裝機量的長期觀察大致上仍未改變，預計未來五年將持續兩位數的年成長率，在2018年底可望達到400GW的總裝機量。IHS表示今年將有32個國家的裝機量超過100MW，其中的7個國家還可能實現超越1GW的PV裝機量。」

IHS對於2014年PV太陽能預測的其他變化主要來自日本。

儘管IHS公司今年也下修日本在今年的住宅PV裝機量預測數字，但針對商業與地面安裝部份的預測數字則較2013年第4 季時更強勁成長。

「IHS公司預計，2014年日本的住宅型PV市場將出現下滑，」Sharma解釋，「雖然日本的躉購電價制度(FIT)削減與IHS公司的預期一致，但其他因素也導致住宅市場下滑，這些因素包括國內PV系統銷售稅額增加、補貼到期以及新建屋放緩等。」

不過，強勁的商用屋頂PV裝機市場預計將可彌補住宅市場的疲弱。IHS公司預計，日本在屋頂部份將達到2014年9GW總裝機量的六成，較2013年的6.3GW裝機量更大幅成長45%。

編譯：Susan Hong

(參考原文：Asia drive global PV installations to 46-GW，by Paul Buckley)

Global solar photovoltaic (PV) installations will grow by a 22 percent in 2014, largely as a result of recent policy changes in the two largest markets, China and Japan, according to data released by market intelligence analyst IHS Inc.

Worldwide installations in 2014 will rise to 46 GW, which is 5 GW higher than had been predicted in October 2013, based on a quarterly review of PV installations in more than 100 countries conducted by the IHS PV Demand Tracker Service.

IHS has increased its forecast in light of recent policy changes in China and Japan.

The announcement by the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) that it would increase its target for ground-mount PV projects, as well as its total installation goal, was a key factor in driving up the forecast.

"IHS previously expressed its doubts about the Chinese government's capability to reach an ambitious target of 8 GW worth of rooftop solar projects in 2014," said Ash Sharma, senior director of solar research at IHS. "While IHS still predicts this goal will not be met, China's recent announcement that it will shift its focus to ground-mount projects and increase its installation target for this segment to 6 GW has led us to raise our forecast for 2014."

IHS predicts that China will install 4.8 GW of rooftop projects and 8 GW of ground-mount projects in 2014 - some 2 GW higher than the NRDC's target. Total installations in China will amount to 13 GW this year, compared to 10 GW in 2013.

Europe's decline is anticipated to continue in 2014. China this year for the first time will install more PV capacity than the whole of Europe, based on the latest IHS forecast.

European PV installations in 2014 will fall to 9.7 GW, marking the third annual decline from the peak year of 2011, when the total amounted to 19 GW. IHS slashed its forecast for European installations in 2014 by nearly 700 MW due to reductions in Germany and also Ukraine - the latter as a result of the political uncertainty in Crimea.

"Despite the continued reduction of government support for PV in Europe, worldwide growth is continuing as conditions elsewhere around the globe continue to improve," Sharma added. "The long-term IHS outlook for worldwide PV installations remains largely unchanged, with double-digit annual growth predicted for the next five years and total installed capacity exceeding 400 GW at the end of 2018. IHS has identified 32 countries that will install more than 100 MW this year, and seven of these surpassing 1 GW."

The other major change to the IHS 2014 PV solar forecast came from Japan.

Although IHS did cut its forecast for residential PV installations in Japan this year, the outlook for commercial and ground-mount sectors is now more robust than it was back in the fourth quarter of 2013, following detailed channel and supply agreement checks.

"IHS expects the residential PV market in Japan to decline this year," Sharma explained. "Although the reduction in Japan's feed-in-tariff (FIT) conformed precisely to IHS expectations, other factors will cause the residential market to decline. These factors include the increase in sales tax on domestic PV systems, the expiration of the additional up-front subsidy and the slowdown in new housing construction."

The residential weakness is forecast to be more than compensated for by the strong commercial rooftop market. IHS expects the rooftop segment will account for about 60 percent of the total of 9 GW that will be installed in Japan this year. This will represent 45 percent growth from 6.3 GW in 2013.

Source: IHS Inc., April 2014