可穿戴式裝置數量快速成長
（來源：Morgan Stanley Blue Paper）
當可穿戴式裝置的新鮮感逐漸消褪，消費者是否會陷入裝置疲乏、或者是徹底對它們反感？畢竟沒人會希望鄰居知道自己忘記刷牙，而且當你把應用程式穿戴在身上，意味著廣告商也會巴著你不放。
無論是不是炒作，物聯網(IoT)已經證明自己是2014年不可逆轉的趨勢，可穿戴式裝置也一樣；上個月發表的一份摩根士丹利藍皮書(Morgan Stanley Blue Paper)指出，隨著物聯網技術更朝向個人化以及可攜發展，可穿戴式裝置將會成為發展最快的科技設備──我不懷疑這一點。
摩根士丹利對可穿戴式裝置市場的預測十分樂觀，估計該類裝置出貨將以154%的複合年成長率(CAGR)，由2013年的600萬台，增加至2017年的2.48億台；這是一般產業界預測數字的兩倍，而且該機構表示仍是稍嫌保守的估計。
除了以上的基本情況，摩根士丹利還提供了該市場到2020年可望有最高10億台出貨量的預測數字；這是根據該機構對企業採用(包括零售、製造業)，以及消費者補貼(來自保險或雇主)還有新使用案例(如擴增實境)的樂觀看法。
如同許多產業觀察家在很早以前就已經預測的，摩根士丹利也認為可穿戴式/物聯網裝置將會在保險與醫療保健等產業領域加速成長。此外如果製造業者希望在生產線上監視員工效率並改善流程，透過可穿戴式裝置來接觸每一個員工會是個好方法，這對許多企業來說是有利的。
全球消費性與企業支出總計有1.6兆美元流向物聯網裝置
（來源：Morgan Stanley Blue Paper）
那麼一般消費者能從可穿戴式裝置獲得什麼好處？我真的很疑惑，非企業用戶有什麼動機會想要不顧一切擁抱物連網裝置？
目前這一代的物聯網/可穿戴式裝置通常需要與智慧型手機或平板電腦搭配，後者配備能解譯個人物聯網終端節點所收集的感測器資料、每隔一段時間會將物聯網資料傳送至雲端做進一步分析。無論哪種方法，我對這種物聯網與智慧型手機搭配的模式並不反感，但問題也在於此──很多物聯網裝置應用程式如果不是完全沒用，就會有「瘸腿」或「自利」的毛病。
也許只有我這麼想，但我就是不明白為何人們如此迷戀於各種個人健康指標。市面上很多可穿戴式裝置都是用來追蹤我們的個人健身成果或是健康狀況，量測包括體重、心律、血壓、睡眠模式、活動以及血糖值等等；這些有點自戀的應用程式能將所有紙上談兵的資料轉換成整齊的圖表…是的，你的生活「快照」被包裝成資訊圖表。
我應該對此感到興奮嗎？當然，知道我自己的一般生理狀況，可能會鼓勵我自己要生活作息正常而且多運動；在看到我糟糕的睡眠模式圖表後，我可能會考慮買一張新床。不過我的生活還有一些從智慧手錶或智慧型手機跳出的圖表上看不到的面向，我們的老闆、家人、朋友甚至是政府對我們的衡量不是已經夠了嗎？
我看過一種新開發的牙刷，能讓使用者知道自己刷牙的方式有多糟(或是多好)──這支Oral-B 科技牙刷嵌入了一個能與智慧型手機溝通的感測器模組，手機上的應用程式能告訴我還要繼續刷幾分鐘的牙，以及哪幾顆牙齒要再刷用力一點。
以上是一個仰賴客觀物聯網裝置做為個人生活教練的最佳案例，但有誰能解釋一下，這種在日常生活各種小事上都想被「指導」的迷戀是怎麼回事？自從走出校園之後，我們大多數人都是獨立生活，擺脫父母的時時耳提面命，這也正是我們想離開家自立的最大原因之一。可是現在，我們又希望有人──好吧，不是人，是應用程式──來提醒我們的行為好或不好？
是想要媽媽在我們的脖子上栓一條鏈子？而為了這個，我們就願意與那些企業分享被物聯網裝置所追蹤的所有東西，讓它們收集資料並進行分析？
誰拿走了我們的健身紀錄資料？
然後我想談談關於隱私權的一點小事，我實在無法理解，為何對於物聯網裝置所收集的個人資料缺乏保護的問題，我們這麼多人一直無法拿出武器抵抗？舉例來說，對於那些能拿到我們的感測器資料之資料代理人(data broker)產業，我們目前是無法可管。你可以說我偏執，但是有幾個資料點是我們可能需要注意的。
《金融時報(Financial Times)》去年夏天有一篇報導，提到在2013年4月被Jawbone收購的可穿戴式醫療保健裝置業者BodyMedia正在進行的專利申請，那些專利是與該公司的「lifeotypes」服務有關；「lifeotypes」是一種結合即時健身資料以及健康紀錄、個人心情或線上購物紀錄等其他資訊的獨特個人檔案。
以上的報導最驚人的部分，是那意味著未來任何一家可穿戴式裝置供應商、資料庫業者或者是資料代理人產業，可以建立結合我們個人資料──例如我有糖尿病、我是個孕婦、我有高膽固醇──以及健身紀錄的檔案，而這些檔案能被應用在節食、預測疾病等各種目的。
請注意，大多數我們儲存在保健類行動應用程式的資料，並不被包括在美國的《健康保險可攜性與責任法案(Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act.，HIPPA)》的保障範圍中。
在此同時，美國聯邦貿易委員會(US Federal Trade Commission，FTC)也參與其中，根據路透社(Reuters)報導該機構認為大多數的健身資料仍然具高度敏感性，正積極調查那些由消費者產生的資料集是如何被分享、交換以及保護。FTC正在尋求來自蘋果(Apple)的保證──要求該公司能避免在未經所有人同意的情況下，透過即將上市之Apple Watch智慧手錶或其他行動裝置收集敏感性健康資料。
路透社的報導引述一位匿名專家的說法，指出蘋果正在針對健康資料的隱私權建立一個有力的先例。據了解，蘋果要求使用者需要先給予同意，應用程式開發商才能獲得授權取得使用者的健康資料；此外蘋果也要求紀錄在其智慧手錶上的資料需要被加密。
FTC對個人資料的調查是微不足道的，路透社指出，該機構最近發布的一份研究結論顯示，12個健康與健身行動應用程式的開發商，會分享或銷售使用者的資訊給76個不同的組織對象，包括廣告商在內。
值得注意的是，摩根士丹利對各種可穿戴式裝置的樂觀預期並沒有太理想化，該機構也列出了幾個限制可穿戴式裝置被市場接受的因素：「可穿戴式裝置需要提供資料的精準度、吸引人的外觀設計、易用性，以及能獨立於智慧型手機之外。」
我不是太在意能獨立於智慧型手機之外這一點，但我認為該報告的一段內容頗具先見之明：「改變消費者行為可能會比預期中更難，消費者的接受度也有可能因為對裝置的疲乏、或是對於分享個人資料的有限意願而受限制。」
消費者不是那麼容易被愚弄的，當可穿戴式裝置的新鮮感一過，我猜人們對於該類裝置的疲乏將會湧現；大家甚至可能決定他們不想要讓所有的鄰居──還有那些企業──知道自己沒有把臼齒刷乾淨！
編譯：Judith Cheng
(參考原文： Do You Feel IoT Device Fatigue Yet?，by Junko Yoshida)
You can wear app, but advertisers can wear you
Hype or no hype, the Internet of Things (IoT) has proven itself an irreversible trend in 2014. The same goes for wearable devices.
As the IoT "becomes more personal and portable," wearables will become "the fastest ramping technology device," according to a Morgan Stanley Blue Paper published last month.
I don't doubt that.
Morgan Stanley's wearable forecast is bullish. Its analysts expect shipments to grow at a 154% compounded annual rate from 6 million in 2013 to 248 million in 2017. That projection is "more than double industry estimates and is arguably still conservative," the report said.
In addition to this basic scenario, Morgan Stanley offers a 1 billion "bull case forecast for 2020." That projection is based on the company's optimistic view on "enterprise adoption (in retail, manufacturing), subsidies for consumers (from insurance, employers), and new use cases (augmented reality)."
As many industry experts have long predicted, the adoption of wearable/IoT devices will accelerate in such industries as insurance and healthcare, the report said.
As Morgan Stanley points out, if manufacturing companies want to monitor employee efficiency and improve processes on the factory floor, wearable devices attached to each worker might do the trick. I get that. This is the upside for a lot of corporations.
What's in it for consumers?
But how do consumers benefit, I wonder. What incentivizes non-corporate people to go whole hog for IoT devices?
Current-generation IoT/wearable devices are often paired with smartphones and tablets. They usually have apps to decipher sensor data collected by a personal IoT end node. Alternately, the mobile device sends IoT data to the cloud for further analysis.
Either way, I find nothing objectionable with such a smartphone-IoT device pairing model. But here's the rub. Many IoT device apps today are lame and self-serving, if not totally ineffective.
Maybe it's just me, but I don't understand why people are so infatuated with their own personal metric.
Many wearable devices available today are designed to track our personal fitness level and health status -- weight, heart rate, blood pressure, sleep patterns, activities, glucose levels, you name it. These narcissistic apps can turn all this navel-gazing data into neat charts. Yep, a snapshot of your life is packaged in infographics.
I'm supposed to be excited about this? My pulse rate?
Of course, knowing my general physical condition might encourage me to be virtuous and exercise more. I might think about buying a new bed after charting my lousy sleep pattern. But there are aspects of my life that I'd rather not see in a chart that pops up on my wrist or smartphone. Don't our bosses, families, friends, and Uncle Sam measure us enough already?
Then, I recently saw a toothbrush that can tell me know how badly (or how well) I'm brushing my teeth. An Oral-B toothbrush embedded with a sensor module can talk to my smartphone. The app on my phone will tell me how many more minutes I should keep brushing and which teeth need to be brushed with greater vigor.
Here's the perfect example of depending on an impersonal IoT device to be a personal life coach. Could anyone please explain to me this fascination with being "coached" on every little thing we do?
After getting out of school, most of us live on our own so that we can get away from the constant scrutiny of parents. That was a big part of my leaving home and becoming independent.
Now we seem to be looking for someone -- well, not someone, an app -- to tell us how well or badly we're behaving? Mom, hanging on a chain around my neck? And for that, we are willing to share everything tracked by our IoT devices with corporations that collect data and conduct analytics?
Who owns our fitness data?
Then there's the small matter of privacy. It's beyond my comprehension why many of us are not yet up in arms about the lack of protection for the personal data collected by our IoT devices. For example, at this point, we have no idea if the data broker industry will ever get hold of our sensor data.
Call me paranoid, but here are a few data points we may want to keep in mind.
The Financial Times reported last summer (subscription required) on patents being pursued by BodyMedia, a wearable healthcare company that Jawbone bought in April 2013. The patents "relate to what the company calls 'lifeotypes' -- unique profiles of individuals that combine real-time fitness data with other information such as health records, an individual's mood or online purchase history."
The scary part of this story is that it hints at a future in which wearable device vendors, database companies, or the data broker industry could create profiles combining our personal data -- whether I'm diabetic, I'm pregnant, or I have high cholesterol -- with fitness data. Such profiles "can be used for a variety of purposes from dating to predicting illness."
We should be aware that most data we store in mobile health apps is not covered by the privacy rules of HIPAA, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act.
Apple inquiry
Meanwhile, the US Federal Trade Commission appears to be on the case. It believes that much of the fitness data is still highly sensitive. The agency is "keen on investigating how any consumer-generated data gathered is shared, exchanged, and protected," Reuters reported last month. The FTC is seeking assurances from Apple that it will prevent sensitive health data collected by its upcoming smartwatch and other mobile devices from being used without owners' consent.
Unnamed experts told Reuters, "Apple is setting a strong precedent for health data privacy." Reportedly, Apple requires that users give consent before app developers are granted access to their health information. It also requires data logged by its smartwatch to be encrypted on the device.
The FTC's inquiry on personal data is hardly trivial. According to Reuters, the agency concluded in a recent study that developers of 12 mobile health and fitness apps were sharing user information with or selling it to 76 different parties, such as advertisers.
It's important to note that Morgan Stanley isn't painting too rosy a picture for everything wearable. There are a few things the company listed as limitations to wearable adoption. "Wearables need to offer data accuracy, appealing design, ease of use and independence from smartphones."
I'm not too concerned about independence from smartphones. But I believe the report is prescient in saying, "It may be harder than expected to change consumer behavior. Consumer adoption may also be constrained by device fatigue or limited willingness to share personal data."
Consumers aren't that stupid. After the novelty of wearing a wearable device wears off, I bet device fatigue will settle in. People might even decide that they don't want the whole neighborhood -- and corporate America -- to know that they're underbrushing their molars.
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